What next on the agenda?
By Mohammad Malick
A SUPERFICIAL analysis would create the perception of a perfect deal: Nawaz Sharif gets to play with his dirty billions in the safety of royal patronage and the generals rid themselves of a political awkwardness. Realistically speaking, however, while Nawaz may appear to be a loser in terms of his political credibility and the government a winner for having 'exposed and shamed' the pseudo democrat from Lahore, the situation remains otherwise.
At worst, Nawaz has come out a weakling who could no longer take the pressure and ditching his loyalists took the first available flight out of the country.
But even in the kindest analysis, the government has suffered the heaviest blow to its moral standing. From an outfit wanting to hold accountability of the corrupt at any cost, it has been reduced to look like a typical military regime anywhere, willing to cut any deal, to hang on to power somehow. This appears to be the perception today, reality be damned.
To be fair to the government, the overriding factor may have been its inability to say no to such powerful financial benefactors as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. But then, the same could have been achieved in a more dignified manner. A little advance work could, and should, have been done in the media to prepare grounds for such an impending fact of kindness as it is being portrayed rather belatedly and totally unconvincingly by the government. Whisking away the entire Sharif clan on a few hours notice, in the dead of night, only added a surreptitious tinge to the entire episode. According to highly placed insiders, even the corps commanders conference was informed of this decision at the very end of the meeting. The so-called cabinet, or the national security council for that matter, were not even considered worthy of consultation on such an important issue.
Can the people, therefore, be faulted for saying that the government has itself underlined the belief that as long as one had immense wealth and formidable friends, he or she would always escape accountability. Hijack or no hijack! May be limited damage control can be done by the government by demonstrating a similar 'compassion' towards lesser politicians even if to insinuate that while Nawaz may have been the most high-profile example, he in reality was just the first of many more to benefit from this softened government attitude. By letting Nawaz go, however, the government has let go of whatever little tenacious hold it had on any legal and moral grounds for its coming to power and continuing to be in power. We all know where the government stands today; the question is where does it go from here?
The importance of the revival of the suspended parliament has always been expounded in these columns but now it no longer remains just a desirable option; it is the only option left to the government. The government has taken a very bold gamble by allowing Nawaz to go into exile. Whether it proves a costly mistake or one that could yield immense political dividends will depend on its moves within the next few weeks. According to insider gossip, the government is also attempting a similar 'coup de grace' vis-a-vis Asif Zardari. May be, its political strategists believe that by allowing Zardari to leave as well, the objective of humiliating Benazir Bhutto a la Nawaz could be achieved.
Even if Zardari were to leave as a consequence of any deal, the nature and implications would be way different from those of Nawaz; equating the two would be simply foolish. Both Zardari and Benazir have repeatedly hinted at the possible exclusion of Zardari from PPP politics in future any way. The government now needs to make a long-term appreciation of political realities and stop relying on short-term palliatives.
Where does the national politics stand today any way? Provincial acrimony has reached alarming levels. Business activity is about as active as a stagnant village pond. Foreign investment is zilch. The local bodies elections, the government only real political foray to date, look set to prove the disaster they were predicted to be by various political observers. Let alone the voter turnout that is yet to be seen, even the contestant turnout has been dismal.
On a national average it has come to about two contestants per seat but the reality is even worse. In an overwhelming majority of the cases, candidates have been elected uncontested. And the situation keeps getting worse as one moves away from the central Punjab districts, showing a clear road map of provincial discontent vis-a-vis policies emanating from the federal capital.
The opposition alliance of ARD, undoubtedly reeling from Nawaz's betrayal at the moment is nevertheless set to bounce back into action after Eid. A list of 1,500 volunteers, who shall be courting arrest in the first wave, has already been finalized. Sure, it may appear a trickle at this time but then haven't all anti-government movements been that in the first phase of their activation? Contrary to common belief, the PML, too, would be participating effectively in ARD activities even if for no other reason than the compulsion to overcome the shame of Nawaz's capitulation and to retain its political relevance. That Javed Hashmi, a hand picked successor to Nawaz, would be replaced in the coming weeks is a foregone conclusion.
The next few days would witness the return of the Nawaz-rebels to the party fold and unless they can deliver a revived assembly to their party colleagues they, too, would have no option but to adopt high-profile anti-government stances to retain their own relevance within PML politics. There is little doubt that the complexion of the Muslim League will figure heavily in any government decision regarding the revival of the National Assembly.
May be it's time the government rethinks one of the earlier proposals made by its own trusted think tank. According to that proposal, Gen Musharraf should go on to become president and a revived parliament passes the sixteenth amendment incorporating the national security council as an inalienable organ of the ruling establishment. This would enshrine a constitutional role for the armed forces. The proposal also called for the president's modified power under Article 58 2(b). Instead of him having to dissolve the entire assembly to send a corrupt or inefficient government packing, he should be able to just sack the government alone. According to this proposal, the revived assembly should elect a PML prime minister who would then form a broad based national government incorporating all important political parties and manage the affairs till the holding of general elections a year down the road. So far so good except for a little hitch. What do you do about the Senate?
The government, according to its legal eagles, is faced with a dilemma on the revival front. Parliament gets revived only with the revival of both houses and for that to happen the provincial assemblies must immediately elect the senators. Who gets to choose the senators is the real question. Busy with everything else, the government's so-called political experts never bothered to fine tune their own list of desirable candidates and now, as with every other political manoeuvre to-date, this, too, promises to become another headache for the government.
The government would be well advised to open a serious dialogue with the main political parties on this count. The senate seats can be easily brokered between the real political forces on the basis of their past share and, if handled prudently by both sides, such an interaction could well speed up the revival of the real democratic process in the country. But what remains of paramount importance is for the government to stop beating about the political bush and to start taking the real political forces into confidence.