ISLAMABAD, Feb 14 (APP): Normal to above-normal rainfall
is expected in most parts of the country from February to April.
An official of Met Office on Sunday informed that a western disturbance during late winter may enhance precipitation intensity
in northern half of the country.
While normal rainfall is expected in southern half of the
country during the season Feb-April, he told APP.
Experimental seasonal forecast is issued on monthly and
seasonal time scales by applying the statistical downscaling
techniques.
Output of the Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM)
is used to obtain the predicted rainfall over the selected
stations of Pakistan, he said.
The outlook for the month of February shows that normal
to below normal precipitation is expected in most parts of the
country except a few places in Azad Jammu and Kashmir and the
adjoining areas of Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa and Punjab where slightly
above normal precipitation is likely to occur.
South-Western Baluchistan is also expected to get slightly
above-normal precipitation whereas Gilgit-Baltistan and northern
parts of Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa may get below normal precipitation
during the month of February.
The outlook for the month of March shows that above normal
precipitation is most likely to occur in most parts of the
country.
This indicates strong influence of western disturbance
in late winter season causing heavy rains in the month of March.
Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa, Punjab and North-Eastern
Baluchistan are expected to get above normal precipitation.
Coastal areas of Sindh and Baluchistan may get normal to
slightly below normal rainfall during the month of March.
Seasonal prediction provides information that how the
weather conditions are expected as compared to the normal
atmospheric conditions.
Output of the Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM)
is downscaled at regional level to obtain the seasonal forecast.
Normal to above normal rainfall is expected in most parts
of the country with a maximum departure in northern Punjab, Azad
Jammu and Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa.
Normal to slightly below normal rainfall is expected in
Sindh province during the month of April.