Experts cautioned against repercussions as US halts aid to Pakistan
WASHINGTON, (MILLAT ONLINE):Defense and foreign policy experts cautioned against repercussions after the Trump administration on Thursday announced it was halting security aid to Pakistan for lack of cooperation in fighting terrorism, an allegation Islamabad has rejected out rightly.
A US State Department spokesperson told a briefing that the administration was suspending most of its security aid, but said that “there may be some exemptions that are made on a case-by-case basis if they’re determined to be critical to national security interests”.
A report by the Washington Post, quoted unnamed officials as acknowledging that the suspension would have a mostly symbolic effect in the near term, but added that it was certain to “accelerate a downward trajectory” between the two allies against terrorism.
“Even by the standard of the tumultuous U.S.-Pakistan relationship, the brewing feud is unusually serious, with the potential to trigger a breakdown in ties that could threaten cooperation on intelligence, nuclear safety and the war in Afghanistan,” the WP report said.
“The problem is that Pakistan is more likely to call it quits than do what the U.S. wants,” the report said quoting Moeed Yusuf, a Pakistani scholar at the US Institute of Peace.
Pakistan has strongly denied US accusation of not taking action against certain terrorist groups as it is taking action against all terrorist organizations without any discrimination. It has also said that the US has failed to recognize the sacrifices it has made, and the colossal loss to its economy has suffered as a result of supporting the global fight against terrorism.
“We don’t think you can explain away the whole Afghanistan imbroglio just by putting blame on Pakistan,” the WP report said quoting a recent interview by Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States, Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry.
The report noted that US aid flows to Pakistan have subsided in recent years and while the country will lose out on millions of dollars it “is unlikely to have the impact it once would have” when the aid was substantially high.
“Pakistan’s increasingly close ties with China — including a new development deal worth more than $62 billion for infrastructure and energy projects — might help soften the blow of censure from the United States,” the WP report said.
While suggesting that the Trump administration could consider further measures, the report quoted experts who warned that additional US measures might prompt Pakistan to take “retaliatory action, possibly including closing road routes and airspace the United States relies on to support its campaign in landlocked Afghanistan.
Pakistan in 2011 suspended access to routes the US used for supplies to its troops in Afghanistan after a US air strike killed more than two dozen troops along the border with Afghanistan. The then US administration later offered apology for the incident.
The report quoted Sameer Lalwani, a senior associate at the Stimson Center, as saying that Islamabad could suspend cooperation in safeguarding its nuclear program or sharing intelligence about terrorist groups.
“They have a lot of arrows in their quiver, as well,,,The worry is if we start going in this tit-for-tat cycle,” Lalwani was quoted as telling the Washington Post.
“The nationalist instinct that characterized the response to Trump’s tweet may grow stronger as Pakistani politicians react to the suspension of aid and position themselves ahead of elections expected this summer,” the report said.
Laurel E. Miller, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corp and a former top State Department official observed that the desire to pressurize Pakistan might backfire. ““A punitive and shaming approach is unlikely to elicit greater cooperation from the Pakistanis because experience shows that when cornered, their inclination is to dig in rather than to find some new accommodation,” she said.
A separate report by the New York Times quoted Richard G. Olson, a former special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan during the Obama administration, as saying that the American military effort in Afghanistan was “heavily reliant” on Pakistan.
“Our choices in Afghanistan are already difficult, but if you want to make them even more difficult, continue to taunt the Pakistanis,” Mr. Olson told the NYT. “The Pakistanis could effectively shut down the war,” he cautioned.